IMF Reduces Nigeria’s Economic Growth Forecast for 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2024 to 2.9%, citing insecurity and climate-related challenges affecting key sectors

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.9%, reflecting a decline from earlier estimates. This adjustment comes as the IMF projects the global economic growth rate to remain stable at 3.2 percent for both 2024 and 2025. The IMF’s assessment, released in the World Economic Outlook report, highlights how Nigeria’s economic growth forecast is impacted by ongoing security issues and flooding that have adversely affected the agricultural and oil sectors.

While the global economy continues to demonstrate resilience despite inflationary pressures, emerging markets such as Nigeria face unique challenges. The IMF report specifically cited disruptions in oil production and civil unrest as contributing factors to the reduced economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria being significantly affected.

Jean-Marc Natal, head of the research department at the IMF, emphasized that Nigeria’s economic growth forecast has been further influenced by climate shocks that continue to disrupt key sectors. Even though Nigeria’s GDP saw a 3.19% increase in Q2 of 2024, the oil sector’s contribution was minimal, at just 5.7%, underscoring the persistent challenges facing the country’s economy.

In previous updates, Nigeria’s economic growth forecast was set at 3.1% in July and 3.3% in April, indicating a consistent downward revision throughout the year. According to Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Nigeria’s average GDP growth has been on a steady decline since 2014, further underscoring the critical need for solutions to address the country’s economic vulnerabilities.